I looked forward to reading Kevin Kelly's new book, New Rules for the New Economy: 10 Radical Strategies for a Connected World, not so much because I hoped to learn something new but because I expected to disagree on lots of points. I've always liked a good intellectual tussle, and this book promised it. It didn't disappoint.

Mr. Kelly is one of a number of writers promoting the notion that digital technology is creating a new economic age, resulting in a long economic boom and unparalleled prosperity. While I share many of these beliefs, I've often thought that Mr. Kelly's belief in the Long Boom idea, which provides the backdrop for this book, was overly simplistic. Mr. Kelly and some of the others are too optimistic about how quickly new technologies will be adopted and about the impact these changes will have on society.

In his new book, Mr. Kelly can be positively New Age about technology. He quotes California Institute of Technology Professor Carver Mead as saying, "Listen to the technology. Find out what it is telling you." Mr. Kelly says he has listened to the technology as best he can and has heard 10 rules. (Isn't it amazing how such complex ideas can so often be reduced to such a neat number of simple principles?)

Despite my reservations, Mr. Kelly hardly comes to the debate unarmed. He states his rules forcefully, in a quick, readable book of just 164 pages. Many of the rules are intriguing. He says, for instance, to "Embrace the Swarm." He says that for every new chip that is sold in a personal computer, there are 30 extremely cheap chips that are being imbedded in everyday devices. So, while most executives focus on how to best use their networks of computers, Mr. Kelly says companies need to ponder how to benefit from these swarms of chips by figuring out how to connect them or how to take advantage of their cheap, disposable processing power.

Mr. Kelly also tells a good story. For instance, he says that with electricity relatively new in the early 1900s and with motors still exotic, a company sold a Home Motor that was to power everything in the house—the fans, the egg beater, buffers, a mixer, a grinder. Of course, over time, motors became so small and cheap that they are everywhere and are invisible. Mr. Kelly defies the reader to count the number of motors in his home. He suggests that computers will follow the same path as motors, as we move away from reliance on all-purpose personal computers and end up with dozens or hundreds of cheap, nearly invisible processors in our houses. In the end, despite some insights and good stories, Mr. Kelly shows too little understanding of the interplay between technology and society. Technology may have given us the ability to create sophisticated communication networks that make centralized political or economic power unnecessary, as Mr. Kelly says. But those networks don't mean those in power will give up their power, or that those who lack power will take it.

Recent events also call into question the very premise of the book: that technology will lead to a Long Boom. Since the idea gained prominence following a 1997 article in Wired—where Mr. Kelly is a founding editor—the debate about the economy has changed. Now, the question is whether we are entering a worldwide recession—or whether we're headed for something worse. The economic concerns won't stop the development and deployment of digital technologies in advanced countries, but they certainly slow their adoption around the world. And they create doubts about whether ubiquitous communication networks create perfect markets or highly unstable ones. With the breakdown of nation states from Russia to Rwanda, it's not at all clear we are headed toward a more rational world, as Mr. Kelly would like to believe.


Mr. Nee and his wife, Tekla, just had their third child, Mikhail, so they know what it's like to constantly adapt in a world of tumultuous change over which they have little, if any, control. He can be reached at enee@forbes.com.