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Looking out through Larry Ellison's eyes, a few years back, the vision of a "network PC" seemed dazzling. The devices would cost so little—less than $500—that they would make the Internet accessible to practically everyone. The devices would also shift the balance of power in the computer industry away from Microsoft and Intel, which had no part in the grand plans of Mr. Ellison, the chairman of Oracle. As his publicity machine shifted into high gear, many people accepted that Net PCs were the future. But the idea bombed. So, for that matter, have a lot of other ideas about the Internet, as we point out in our cover story, "Oops!" Yet Mr. Ellison and the pundits who erred so badly in other ways seem unchastened. They are saying, just as confidently as a few years back, that they've seen the future and are willing to tell us about it. Hey, they may be right this time. But we at Context still think they should be held accountable for the mistakes they made the first time around, if only to encourage you to treat their current prognostications with a touch of skepticism. Along those lines, this issue's book review, "The Test of Time," looks back at three business books that were best-sellers in the mid-1990s, to see whether the companies cited as paragons of virtue still look so good now. As predictors, the books turned out to be just so-so. The worst performer was the most prominent, Competing for the Future, which convinced many of us to think about our businesses in terms of core competencies. From time to time, we'll continue to take looks at how various predictions have held up, just to help keep people honest. To be fair, we'll also take the occasional hard look at ourselves and report to you on where we've erred and what we've learned from our mistakes. In the meantime, I'd like to call your attention to two pieces that may change how you think about electronic commerce and that I believe will stand the test of time. The first, "Weapon of Math Destruction," lays out a simple formula that seems to explain why the experts have consistently underestimated the growth of the Internet and of e-commerce, and why they're probably still not fully understanding the power of the on-line world. The formula also argues for focusing less on generating transactions and more on building communities through the Web. The second, related piece, "Tough Questions," lays out six questions that senior executives should force onto the table if they're to understand how information technology is changing their businesses and are to figure out how to react. "Ostrich," about how Lexis-Nexis is frittering away a 25-year lead in on-line information services, shows how not to think about electronic commerce. "Quick-Change Artist" tells an intriguing story of a retailer who took the ultimate risk, closing all his stores and moving his whole business on-line. Don't take the story as an endorsement—there's a very real chance the gamble will fail—but the experiment will be fascinating to watch. Whatever else you do, please also take a look at "Rich Man, Poor Man," which is the best exploration I've seen of whether the spread of technology will narrow the gap between the haves and have-nots or whether it will widen the gap. I confess that while I began as an optimist, the conversation left me much more concerned. Cheers, Paul B. Carroll
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