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| IBMs performance since Lou Gerstner took over as chief executive in 1993 has been nothing short of remarkableor has it? The company has moved away from the precipice and is again one of the most-profitable companies in the U.S. Slick ads have generated the impression that IBM is once more on the cutting edge, as a leader in e-commerce technology. And the companys stock price...oh, the stock price! The stock price has risen more than ninefold since Gerstner became chief executive. But look a little harder, and the situation becomes less clear. When Gerstner took over, Microsofts stock-market value was roughly the same as the battered IBMs. Six years later, Microsofts market value is almost twice IBMs. Microsoft isnt so anomalous, either. Intel had about the same market value as IBM when Gerstner took office. Intel is now 10% ahead, at around $240 billion. Cisco, which challenged IBM in computer networking, has gone from a market value of $5.5 billion to $193 billion in the Gerstner years. EMC went from $1 billion to $56 billion of market value in that stretch by stealing leadership from IBM in data storage. America Onlinewhich succeeded where IBM failed with its on-line joint venture, Prodigywent from inconsequential levels to a market capitalization of $100 billion. In personal computers, IBM recently said its making progress because it may lose only hundreds of millions of dollars this year, down from about $1 billion last year. But PC leader Dell Computer measures progress a different way: Its market value has gone from $1 billion to $105 billion during the Gerstner era. When I covered IBM for the Wall Street Journal from 1986-92, the rule of thumb was that IBM generated half the revenue of the whole computer industry and claimed two-thirds of the profits and market value. These days, depending on how the boundaries of the industry are drawn, IBMs share of the market value is probably a percentage in the low teens. The point here isnt to take shots at IBMoh, maybe a few, just for old times sake. The point is to show that there is often less than meets the eye when it comes to claims of success in these days of e-commerce, even if a company can point to the sort of clear improvement that Gerstner has produced at IBM. Some other examples:
So, be even more skeptical than usual. Lots of companies are claiming victory because their stock prices are doing so well. But the real measure is how companies are doing against their competitionin other words, how much of an industrys growth is a given company capturing? A close look would show that an awful lot of companies arent doing nearly as well as they think.
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