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One of the fascinating things about the times we live in is their utter unpredictability. Who could have guessed that a doctoral student’s attempt to avoid writing his dissertation would turn into mighty Yahoo! and give the student—this issue’s cover subject, Jerry Yang—a personal net worth of more than $10 billion? [See "The Next Big Thing."] Who could have guessed that Lands’ End, a stodgy catalog retailer based precisely in the middle of nowhere, would find itself perfectly positioned for e-commerce? [See "Fashion Forward."] It’s not that unpredictable innovation is a brand-new phenomenon. This issue’s book excerpt ["The Silver Bullet"] tells the entertainingly messy story of how Coors invented the aluminum beer can in the 1950s and wiped out the steel-can industry. Still, unpredictability is more common, more cataclysmic, and more constant these days. As Yang says in his fascinating interview, e-commerce companies have to adapt continually because their customers are always changing. "What users were doing three years ago is very different from what they’re doing today," Yang says. As we all try to deal with uncertainty, we tend to make sense of things by coming up with rules and by telling stories. But those rules and stories often don’t serve us well. They’re too simple, and they become outdated too quickly. So, a lot of what we try to do at Context is to explore and explode these rules and myths. In the Digital Strategy column ["Hand in Hand"], Prof. Mohanbir Sawhney shows that executives often mistakenly assume that a new technology will directly replace an old one. He suggests a series of ways for coming up with hybrids of new and old—in particular, for combining the on-line and off-line worlds. He also lays out guidelines for positioning a new technology-based idea correctly. In a feature article, writer Joanne Kelley says that start-ups aren’t nearly as innovative or invincible as they are often made out to be. While many established companies are trying to be more like start-ups, the feature cites a host of well-funded start-ups based on amusingly bad ideas. [See "The Awful Truth About Start-Ups."] In the CEO User’s Guide ["Through the Looking Glass"], consultant Andrew Robinson argues that many companies only think that they’ve become "customer-centric." He describes three ways for companies to go all the way and rethink their organizations so that they don’t focus on lines of business but, instead, focus on lines of customers. In The Great Lie ["Pick a Number, Any Number"], financial-services executive Jay Kingley says market researchers’ estimates of e-commerce are irrelevant, and not just because they’re so inaccurate. He says all commerce is taking on an electronic component, so talking about Internet-based businesses is like talking about telephone-based businesses. Besides, use of the Internet is expanding so fast that the absolute numbers are eclipsed in importance by the phenomenal growth rate. Finally, in The Last Word ["To Infinity and Beyond! (Or Maybe Not)"], academic Peter Fader and on-line auction executive Bryan Semple debate whether the novelty of on-line buying will wear off. If it does, then individual customers will slow their purchases and, once the influx of new customers diminishes, e-buying will plateau. A scary thought. Lest we come across as too pessimistic, we’ve included a feature on how the federal government is using the Internet to reinvent itself and, at long last, become more efficient. [See "Finally!"] We’re actually extremely optimistic that those who understand how e-commerce is developing will thrive in coming years. It’ll just be hard. Happy (or, at least, thought provoking) reading. Cheers, Paul B. Carroll |
