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Seven years ago, I formed the Internet business group of what was then Digital Equipment Corp. I reached an informal agreement to merge our nascent search-engine technology, AltaVista, with the then-obscure entity Yahoo! Inc. (www.yahoo.com) which provided complementary surfing and chat capabilities. The concept, then and now, is simple: that technology will catch on only once it becomes compellingly useful. Yahoo seemed to me to provide an important element of usability, but senior management couldn’t see what I saw. I was told to stay away from Yahoo. Then I was demoted two levels. DEC, of course, has since disappeared, and AltaVista has languished, while Yahoo has flourished. I’m hoping my immodest tale will demonstrate that I have a pretty good nose for technology trends. And the scars to prove it. My battered nose tells me that senior managers are misunderstanding "mobile commerce" in ways just as important as those that confused DEC’s executives. Many have said that the movement toward "mobility"the ability to purchase items, gather information, and communicate via cellphones, personal digital assistants, and an array of other wireless devicesis in the same place as the World Wide Web was when it caught the world’s imagination in 1995. Not so. Although the mobility and Web movements should eventually be comparable in sweep and power, there are three major differences between then and now:
As makers of phones equipped with Web browsers demonstrated painfully over the past year, any company that thinks it can take an idea from the Web and just plop it onto a wireless device is going to drop right through the gaps in mobile technology.
This suggests that North American businesses can learn something from early overseas mobile strategies. A case in point was the decision made by Broadwing Inc. (www.broadwing.com) to introduce its wildly popular prepaid i-wireless phones in the U.S. after it saw how European kids loved similar phones (and ran up big bills).
With so much technology change likely in these next four years, the learning curve will look like an elevator shaft. In light of these three differences, I embarked on a major study that sheds light on how executives should prepare their businesses for the prospect that business partners and customers will soon be able to interact with them from any device, anywhere, anytime. I studied and interviewed executives at more than 1,500 companies that will tackle the Herculean tasks of inventing mobile technologies, building them into vast networks, and providing services to mobile users. I found that executives should be doing five things:
If you have enough workers operating outside your offices, you should immediately provide them wireless access at least to e-mail, employee directories, and a corporate intranet. Doing so is relatively easy because of a growing number of software packages that handle the tasks.
Fidelity Investments (www300.fidelity.com) considers wireless a must to remain competitive in online brokerage. The company’s InstantBroker offers clients mobile access to stock quotes, portfolios, watch lists, and e-mail alerts of changing stock prices, as well as the ability to complete stock transactions. Some 70% of InstantBroker clients are existing Fidelity customers, suggesting that wireless will be critical to customer retention.
Although most of these ideas won’t come to fruition for years, it helps to be working toward a compelling vision of the future.
There are dozens of potentially important technologies that need to be trackedfor instance, those related to voice recognition, security, data transmission, "always-on" connections to the network, and dynamic provisioning, which allows new features to be sent to all users automatically. By playing with technology, I think I’ve even discovered the mobile Web’s next potential Yahoo: Webmap Technologies Inc. (www.webmap.com), a privately held company that has a search system activated by a touch-screen stylus. It appears to tunnel through the Web to seek out requested information. "Tap, tap" may replace "point and click." My advice to them is the same that I gave to DEC and am giving to you: Get in on the ground floor.
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